Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
