Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
